AGP Executive Report

Mozambique National Dialogue: Mozambique’s Inclusive National Dialogue has moved into proposal consolidation after diaspora public hearings, with 10 working groups now organizing inputs across nine countries and reform scenarios spanning constitutional, moderate and adjustment options. Energy & investment: Africa Energy Week (AEW) 2026 opens in Cape Town on Oct 12-16, promising deal-focused forums across upstream, finance, additions, and downstream/petrochemicals. Agribusiness push: Nampula is courting Indian investors via the Asia Africa Agri Alliance, pitching oilseed cultivation and edible oil processing to build regional value chains. Mining takeover watch: Kenmare Resources confirmed a non-binding cash offer proposal from Abu Dhabi’s IRH, sending shares sharply higher; talks continue with an Irish rules deadline of Nov 17. Trade shock: The EU suspended imports of Namibian beef after foot-and-mouth disease, threatening jobs and exports across southern Africa including Mozambique. Finance & governance: A Mozambican businessman, Norolamin Gulam, was sentenced in the US to 135 months over a money-laundering conspiracy linked to drug proceeds. Transport pressure: Fuel shortages are driving up bus fares and pushing commuters to hitch rides and black-market fuel.

Mozambique Energy & LNG: TotalEnergies says Mozambique LNG momentum is back, framing the project push around local jobs, skills and supplier participation, not just cargoes and revenues. ENH Leadership: Mozambique’s national hydrocarbons company ENH is entering a “consequential chapter” under Rudêncio Morais, with a focus on strengthening commercial capability and expanding domestic gas infrastructure. Insurance & Risk Finance: A new regional outlook argues East and Southern Africa’s insurance penetration is still tiny, leaving households, SMEs and infrastructure underprotected and calling for stronger cross-border risk-financing. Mining & Corporate Moves: Kenmare Resources confirms ongoing talks with International Resources Holdings over a possible cash offer; the company runs the Moma titanium mine in northern Mozambique. Fuel Crisis Spillover (Malawi): Malawi’s fuel shortage is driving bus fares sharply higher and pushing commuters to hitch rides, highlighting how transport costs can quickly hit small businesses. Regional Security Cooperation: Tanzania and Mozambique opened a joint defence and security commission meeting in Dar es Salaam, with border protection and immigration management on the agenda. Mozambique LNG Supply Chain: Separate reporting notes LNG market shifts and supplier diversification pressures that could affect regional gas trade dynamics.

Mozambique–Belarus Diplomacy: First Deputy FM Sergey Lukashevich received Mozambique’s ambassador credentials, agreeing to keep political dialogue active with a push to deepen economic cooperation. Cabo Delgado Security & Rights: Mozambique’s army is still struggling in counter-insurgency despite foreign training, with civilians reporting ongoing abuses that weaken community support for defeating militants. Mining in Mozambique: Gemfields set a new Montepuez Ruby Mining target to process 11.39m tonnes by June 2029, even as it booked a $125.2m impairment tied to weaker high-quality ruby recovery and commissioning delays. Public Finance Oversight: Mozambique’s Administrative Tribunal approved the 2025 General State Account, showing a 0.52% GDP contraction in 2025, revenues at 94.5% of plan, and a smaller-than-projected deficit. Agriculture & Food Security: President Daniel Chapo backed stronger Mozambique–China agricultural cooperation, highlighting the Wanbao rice farm model and wheat trials in Gaza. Energy & Investment Outlook: Chapo and US President Donald Trump discussed future Millennium Challenge Account projects, including infrastructure, critical minerals, agriculture and counter-terrorism. Regional Business & Trade: Botswana–Mozambique trade ambitions were set through a new commission targeting concrete economic results.

Mozambique–China Agriculture: President Daniel Chapo visited the Wanbao rice farm in Gaza, calling for stronger Mozambique–China agricultural cooperation and scaling the Chinese-invested model to boost food production and farmer yields. Mozambique–US Projects: Chapo met Donald Trump on the sidelines of the UN Summit in New York to discuss future Millennium Challenge Account projects, including infrastructure, health, critical minerals, agriculture and anti-terrorism cooperation. Mozambique–Botswana Trade Push: Mozambique and Botswana agreed to upgrade ties into a Bi-National Commission aimed at turning decades of diplomacy into trade, investment, production and jobs, with current goods flows still far below potential. Cabo Delgado Mining Update: Gemfields recorded a $125.2m impairment tied to revised ruby recovery outlooks at Montepuez, even as total ruby and corundum output rose in the first half of 2026. Public Finance Check: Mozambique’s Administrative Tribunal approved the 2025 General State Account, showing a 0.52% economic contraction and a budget deficit of 101.3bn meticais. Climate Risk for Southern Africa: El Niño is expected to worsen drought and food insecurity risks across southern and central Mozambique and South Africa, with Mozambique flagged by a UN expert as among the most vulnerable to climate impacts. Local Content in Energy Services: Techdrilling opened a new Pemba office to bring inspection, testing and HSE training closer to Mozambique’s oil and gas operations, supporting locally certified expertise.

Agribusiness & Food Security: President Daniel Chapo urged deeper Mozambique–China agricultural cooperation after visiting the Wanbao rice farm in Gaza, saying the model could be scaled nationwide to boost food production. Public Finance Oversight: Mozambique’s Administrative Tribunal approved the 2025 General State Account, showing a 0.52% economic contraction in 2025, revenues at 364.5bn meticais, and a deficit of 101.3bn meticais. Mining & Investor Sentiment: Gemfields booked a $125.2m impairment tied to weaker high-quality ruby recovery outlooks at its Cabo Delgado operation, even as overall production rose. Regional Trade & Infrastructure: Mozambique and Botswana agreed to upgrade ties into a bi-national commission aimed at turning diplomatic cooperation into trade, investment and infrastructure results. Energy & Local Capacity: Techdrilling opened a new Pemba office to bring inspection and safety training closer to Cabo Delgado oil and gas operations, while ROSCONSULT and other Mozambican firms push local delivery across the energy value chain. Climate Risk: A UN expert warned Mozambique is among Africa’s most vulnerable to the 2026 super El Niño, with drought, heatwaves and food insecurity risks rising. SME-Led Growth: Nedbank Mozambique’s MD said SME expansion is key to diversifying the economy beyond extractives, highlighting financing for local manufacturers.

Mozambique–Botswana Trade Push: Mozambique and Botswana agreed to upgrade ties into a Bi-National Commission, aiming to turn political goodwill into trade, investment and infrastructure gains after Chapo’s visit and business forum in Gaborone. Climate Risk for Mozambique: The UN warns Mozambique is among Africa’s most vulnerable to the 2026 “super El Niño,” with drought, heatwaves and food insecurity risks—especially as the country faces economic strain after earlier floods. LNG Expansion Under Fire: TotalEnergies is weighing faster Phase 2 Mozambique LNG expansion, while Justiça Ambiental and others urge Japanese shipping firms to pause orders over unresolved human-rights and community concerns. Local Business Capacity: Techdrilling opened a new Pemba office to bring inspection, testing and HSE training closer to Cabo Delgado oil and gas operations, while ROSCONSULT highlights growing Maputo-based consultancy capacity across energy, mining and compliance. SME Focus for Growth: Nedbank Mozambique says SME expansion is key to diversifying the economy amid debt and forex pressure, pointing to local manufacturers like Merec. Governance Watch: Mozambique’s Finance Ministry suspended a controversial Constitutional Council vehicle disbursement after procurement irregularities were flagged.

Oil & Gas Local Capacity: Techdrilling opened a new operational office in Muxara, Pemba, to bring inspection, testing and HSE training closer to Cabo Delgado operators and contractors. Energy & LNG Politics: TotalEnergies is weighing faster Mozambique LNG Phase 2 expansion, while campaigners urge Japanese shipping firms to pause orders for 17 LNG carriers over unresolved human-rights and community concerns. Local Business Growth: ROSCONSULT, based in Maputo with presence in Pemba, Nacala and Vilanculos, is positioning Mozambican technical consulting for energy, mining, water and HSE work across the region. Climate Risk & Human Rights: A UN expert warns Mozambique is among Africa’s most vulnerable to the 2026 super El Niño, calling for tighter safeguards to avoid fossil-fuel lock-in and protect rights amid drought, floods and food insecurity. SME Focus: Nedbank Mozambique says SME growth is key to diversifying the economy as forex and public-debt pressures bite, highlighting financing for local manufacturers. Public Procurement Scrutiny: Mozambique’s finance ministry suspended controversial Constitutional Council vehicle disbursements after procurement irregularities were flagged. Trade & Agriculture: Mozambique and a Chinese business group signed an MoU to boost cassava production and export, targeting one million boxes and integrating small-scale farmers. Banking & Compliance: The Bank of Mozambique reminded lenders they can freeze accounts on reasonable grounds of fraud, money laundering or terrorist financing without waiting for a court order.

SME-Led Growth Focus: Nedbank Mozambique’s MD Joel Rodrigues says the country’s growth potential hinges on diversifying via SMEs, while highlighting how firms like Merec are scaling food production and distribution. Banking Compliance: Mozambique’s central bank reminded lenders they can freeze accounts on reasonable grounds of fraud, money laundering or terrorist financing without waiting for court orders. LNG Expansion Under Pressure: TotalEnergies is weighing faster Mozambique LNG Phase 2 work, as campaigners urge Japanese shipping firms to pause orders over human-rights and community concerns. Crypto Custody Push: Absa becomes Africa’s first bank to offer institutional crypto custody in South Africa, targeting a $1.5bn market and eyeing expansion across the region subject to approvals. Public Procurement Scrutiny: Mozambique’s finance ministry suspended a controversial Constitutional Council vehicle disbursement after procurement irregularities were flagged. Trade & Jobs Link: Mozambique and China’s Long Ran signed an MoU to boost cassava production and export, targeting one million boxes and integrating smallholders. Pensions Under Strain: Government admits pension payments under the Basic Social Subsidy Programme face funding constraints, with no near-term plans to raise benefits. Climate Risk Costs: A UN expert warns Mozambique must avoid fossil-fuel lock-in to protect human rights and climate resilience.

Banking Oversight: Mozambique’s central bank reminded lenders they can freeze accounts within 48 hours when there are reasonable grounds to suspect fraud, money laundering or terrorist financing—without waiting for a court order. LNG & Corporate Scrutiny: TotalEnergies is weighing Mozambique LNG Phase 2 acceleration, while campaigners urge Japanese shipping firms to pause orders for LNG carriers amid unresolved human-rights and community concerns. Public Procurement Watch: Mozambique’s Finance Ministry suspended a controversial Constitutional Council vehicle disbursement of 49.5m meticais after procurement irregularities were flagged. Climate & Rights: A UN expert warned Mozambique risks deepening fossil-fuel dependency, urging a human-rights-based climate resilience path. Trade & Agriculture: Mozambique’s Chamber of Commerce and a Chinese group signed an MoU to boost cassava production and export to China, targeting one million boxes. Social Protection: Government said pension payments have faced funding constraints, though payments have resumed and increases are not immediate. Regional Transport: Malawi intensified plans for a north-bound railway to connect to the Tanzania–Zambia network to cut transport costs.

Banking & Rates: Mozambique’s central bank kept the benchmark MIMO rate at 9.25% and adjusted reserve rules, citing climate shocks, slow recovery and risks to fuel/food prices, while adding an export- and import-replacement lending incentive. FX & LNG Link: Bank of Mozambique data shows banks bought $5.73bn in foreign currency from January–August, driven by Rovuma LNG project execution and extractives, despite constraints from delayed public-debt servicing. Climate Cost: Flood damage in Mozambique’s Dec 2025–Jan 2026 rainy season is estimated at about 2% of GDP, with Gaza and Maputo hit hardest and major pressure on public finances. Energy Security: A UN official warned that disruptions to fertilizer shipments via the Strait of Hormuz could cut fertilizer use and worsen food insecurity, naming Mozambique among the most exposed. Trade & Diplomacy: Russia–Mozambique trade rose 78% in the first half of 2026 as both sides met in Moscow on deeper economic and technical cooperation, including geology exploration. Oilseed Corridor: India’s SEA signed a Nampula agreement to explore a sustainable oilseed/edible-oil corridor, aiming to diversify India’s import sources and support farmers. Security & Transport: Mozambique denied a fuel shortage after queues linked to weekend logistics; meanwhile, drug control legislation is being revised to tackle synthetic drugs and new trafficking patterns. Aviation Shock: A Flydubai cockpit stabbing and alleged attempted crash in a Dubai–Tel Aviv flight is renewing focus on crew-linked hijacking risks.

Banking & FX: Mozambique’s central bank kept the MIMO benchmark rate at 9.25% and tweaked reserve rules, citing climate shocks and Middle East/Europe risks; it also reported $5.73bn in FX trading (Jan–Aug) driven by LNG and extractives. Energy & Trade Links: Russia says trade with Mozambique rose 78% in H1 2026 and is ready for deeper geological exploration cooperation. Agribusiness Corridor: India’s solvent extractors group SEA signed an agreement with Nampula to explore an oilseed/edible-oil corridor, aiming to diversify India’s import sources. Food Security Watch: A UN official warned that disruptions to fertilizer flows via the Strait of Hormuz could hit countries like Mozambique, where Gulf dependence is 50–60%. Oil & Infrastructure: Mozambique’s drug control legislation is being revised to tackle new psychoactive substances, while Oceania Bunkering prepares STS bunkering at Beira from October. Regional Business Climate: Mozambique’s President Chapo said Botswana ties could deepen via tourism and new air links.

Mozambique Tax & Fiscal Watch: Mozambique’s cabinet approved amendments to Corporate Income Tax, VAT and Personal Income Tax rules, plus a new simplified tax regime for small taxpayers—aimed at clearer deadlines and stronger revenue collection. Mozambique Debt & Spending Pressure: A local NGO coalition (FMO) says the PESOE-2027 proposal tilts resources toward debt service, squeezing funding for development and infrastructure. Mozambique Procurement Scrutiny: Maputo approved 49.5m meticais for Constitutional Council vehicle purchases, drawing criticism over supplier choices and whether procurement rules were properly followed. Rovuma LNG Supply Chain: SLB OneSubsea won a subsea production systems contract for the first phase of Rovuma LNG offshore Mozambique, supporting deepwater gas development as partners move toward final investment decisions. Beira Bunkering Expansion: Oceania Bunkering Mozambique plans ship-to-ship fuel bunkering at Beira Anchorage from October, starting with LSMGO and expanding to other grades. Regional Energy Investment: Kenya kicked off construction of a $16bn Dangote-linked Lamu refinery (700,000 bpd) with plans for power co-generation—an East Africa fuel-cost and industrial push. Aviation Security: A Dubai-to-Tel Aviv flyDubai flight incident—pilot stabbing and an attempted crash—has reignited focus on crew-related hijacking risks. Fuel Crisis Signal (Region): Malawi’s fuel shortages are worsening as currency strain drives diesel scarcity and steep roadside price gaps.

Mozambique Tax & Fiscal Watch: The government approved amendments to Corporate Income Tax, VAT and Personal Income Tax rules, plus a new Simplified Tax for Small Taxpayers (ISPC), aiming to improve tax administration and broaden the base. Mozambique Public Spending Scrutiny: Maputo approved 49.5 million meticais for Constitutional Council vehicle purchases, triggering criticism over supplier selection and whether procurement rules were followed. Rovuma LNG Supply Chain: ExxonMobil Moçambique awarded SLB OneSubsea a contract for Rovuma LNG Area 4 phase-one subsea production systems, with plans for a Mozambique service base to build local capability. Mozambique Debt & Development Debate: A Mozambican NGO coalition (FMO) urged a debt management strategy, arguing PESOE-2027 shifts fiscal space toward debt service and squeezes development investment. Regional Business Signals: Gemfields reported a wider first-half 2026 net loss tied to Mozambique ruby mining impairments, despite higher revenue and improved auction performance. Energy & Transport Context: SLB OneSubsea also highlighted growing subsea opportunities across Africa and Asia, while Zimbabwe’s NRZ seeks US$115m to expand rail freight capacity for minerals.

Rovuma LNG Subsea Push: ExxonMobil Moçambique awarded SLB OneSubsea a contract for the first phase subsea production systems for the offshore Rovuma LNG project, covering subsea trees, manifolds, umbilicals and control systems, with SLB planning a Mozambique services base to support local training and supply chains. Mozambique Governance & Fuel Procurement: Mozambique’s government moved a former Frelimo investment chief into charge of the state fuel-procurement monopoly, raising governance questions given his links to fuel-storage interests. Bank of Mozambique Leadership Shake-up: The inauguration of a Bank of Mozambique governor-designate was delayed after a 2020 criminal case resurfaced, and President Chapo quickly replaced him. Aviation Deal for Air Mozambique: State-owned firms set up Fly Moz Investimentos to support aircraft acquisition for Air Mozambique via “dry lease” arrangements, aiming to improve fleet access. Regional Energy Outlook: Aliko Dangote said Africa could be largely self-sufficient in refined fuel by 2030, as he prepares a $16bn, 700,000 bpd refinery in Kenya. Rail Turnaround Funding Focus (Zimbabwe): Zimbabwe’s Mutapa Investment Fund said NRZ needs governance reforms, cleared audits and improved performance to unlock new capital for rail revival. Mozambique-Botswana Trade Drive: President Chapo urged stronger Mozambique–Botswana economic cooperation, citing low trade volumes and targeting logistics, agriculture, agro-processing and tourism. Pemba Municipal Debt: Cabo Delgado’s Pemba municipality faces debt above 800m meticais, prompting reforms to boost revenue collection.

Fuel & Refining Outlook: Nigerian tycoon Aliko Dangote says Africa could be largely self-sufficient in refined fuel by 2030, as he prepares to break ground on a $16bn, 700,000 bpd refinery in Kenya’s Lamu. Mozambique Aviation: Mozambique’s state firms set up Fly Moz Investimentos to support aircraft acquisition for Air Mozambique via “dry lease” arrangements. Energy Projects: SLB OneSubsea won a subsea systems contract for ExxonMobil-led Area 4 partners on Mozambique’s Rovuma LNG phase one. Trade & Industry Diplomacy: President Daniel Chapo urged stronger Mozambique–Botswana business ties, citing underperforming trade and opportunities in logistics, agriculture, agro-processing and tourism. Local Government Finance: Pemba Municipality’s debt tops 800m meticais, pushing reforms to boost revenue collection. Regional Climate Resilience: Zambezi Basin states agreed priority actions for a proposed $130m climate-resilience programme. Port & Logistics: Hapag-Lloyd and DP World expanded their Africa port partnership, including support for Maputo infrastructure. Fuel Supply Pressure (Region): Malawi faces renewed diesel queues and erratic petrol supply amid foreign-exchange constraints.

Energy & Markets: TotalEnergies lifted Q4 buybacks to $2.5bn (from $1.5bn) and plans $2bn–$2.5bn more in Q1 2027, while committing to dividend growth of more than 5% a year through 2030 and targeting gearing below 10% by year-end; the move is tied to higher oil prices and production growth bets that include Mozambique. Inflation Watch: A continent-wide disinflation trend is at risk as Brent pushes above $100, threatening renewed pressure on fuel, transport, electricity and food costs. Mozambique Digital Government: Mozambique is rolling out a unified Citizen Portal, aiming for scaled launch by 2029 to bring services online and cut in-person visits. Trade & Logistics: SADC says the Cuchamano/Nyamapanda border post is now clearing about 80 trucks a day with longer operating hours, easing congestion on the Beira/North-South corridors. Mining & Industry: NeoTerra applied for a $5m US-Africa grant to expand Mozambique’s Monte Muambe fluorspar project and assess downstream options. Security & Society: Reports highlight rising drug use in Mozambique as it shifts from transit to consumption, alongside ongoing regional instability.