AGP Executive Report

Mozambique Growth Outlook: The government says GDP growth should average 4.9% from 2027, rising to 9.5% by 2029 as LNG megaprojects come on stream, alongside lower inflation and a falling debt path under its Medium-Term Fiscal Scenario 2027–2029. Post-Flood Recovery: A 102 billion meticais plan is set to fund Mozambique’s recovery after floods that hit hundreds of thousands, with the forecast growth for 2026 revised down. Energy & Infrastructure Execution: Sarens adds a 400-tonne crawler crane in Mozambique to support power, oil & gas and LNG projects, while Lake Victoria Gold mobilises a project manager to advance construction readiness at its Imwelo project. Trade & Regional Links: A Zimbabwe trade mission in Mozambique targets export contracts and investment, highlighting the Mutare–Beira corridor as a key business artery. Xenophobia Spillover to Mozambique: Mozambique promises professional reintegration for repatriated citizens from South Africa, including vocational certification and pathways via Portugal and the UAE. Business Climate Context: WHO urges African governments to put chronic non-communicable diseases at the center of policy—an economic and productivity issue as much as a health one.

Mozambique Consumer Protection: President Daniel Chapo swore in IGSAE leadership and urged tougher oversight against expired and counterfeit goods, while warning against over-inspecting firms and pushing for digitised, risk-based inspections to cut burdens and protect consumers. Digital Economy Partnerships: Mozambique’s digital economy minister met SpaceX to explore connectivity and digital infrastructure collaboration, with a focus on attracting investment and supporting SMEs. Mining & Critical Minerals: NeoTerra says metallurgical testwork at its Monte Muambe project in Mozambique has derisked production of acid-grade fluorspar and separated heavy rare earths and gallium-bearing materials, with a rare earths prefeasibility programme moving toward execution. Regional Energy & Climate Risk: UN agencies appealed for over $200m to protect 8.8m people across 22 African countries from El Niño impacts, including drought risks in Southern Africa and complex effects in the east. Cross-Border Tensions Spill Over: Viral reports show South African tourists being confronted and ordered out of Mozambique restaurants amid wider anti-immigrant tensions, as both sides urge calm. Fintech & Payments: BanffPay secured a Payment Service Provider licence in Liberia, positioning its unified pay-in/pay-out API to help businesses and cross-border payments—another sign of fintech momentum across the region.

Mozambique Digital Economy Push: President Daniel Chapo urged tighter oversight through the new IGSAE inspectorate to protect consumers and curb expired/counterfeit goods, while also calling for higher education reforms aligned to economic transformation and innovation. Space & Connectivity Talks: Mozambique’s digital economy minister met SpaceX to explore partnerships to expand connectivity and digital infrastructure, targeting investment and SME growth. Mining & Critical Metals: London-listed NeoTerra says metallurgical gains at its Monte Muambe project in Mozambique have derisked development, including upgraded gallium and progress toward a rare-earths and fluorspar value chain. Anti-Money Laundering in Tourism: Mozambique’s GIFiM accused 17 travel and tourism agencies of money laundering and tax fraud linked to transactions worth over 58bn meticais, with funds routed abroad via Mozambican bank accounts. Regional Power Shock: Zimbabwe restored electricity after a nationwide blackout triggered by a fault on the Warren–Alaska transmission line, highlighting grid fragility and reliance on imports including Mozambique’s HCB. Fintech Expansion (Regional): BanffPay secured a Central Bank of Liberia PSP license to launch a unified pay-in/pay-out API, aiming to simplify cross-border digital payments. South Africa Migration Pressure: Nigeria warned conditions for foreigners in South Africa are worsening, announcing more evacuation flights amid ongoing xenophobic violence and deaths.

Mozambique Higher Education Reform: President Daniel Chapo says Mozambique will reshape higher education to better support industrialization, innovation and economic transformation, pushing universities to “produce solutions” and expand applied research and frontier skills like AI and data science. Cabo Delgado Security Funding: Chapo also said the EU will contribute to funding Rwandan troops supporting the fight against Islamist terrorism in Cabo Delgado, alongside Mozambique’s own reconstruction financing and continued talks options. Fiscal Discipline & Tax Base: Mozambique’s Finance Minister Carla Louveira reaffirmed plans to consolidate public accounts and cut the fiscal deficit, focusing on modernizing state finances, digitalizing tax processes and broadening the tax base without raising the burden on current formal taxpayers. Business Costs & Fee Fragmentation: Mozambique’s CTA warned of a proliferation of fees across state entities due to weak centralized coordination, calling for tax procedure simplification, digital reforms and clearer rules to reduce penalties and improve predictability for companies. Regional Trade & Energy Outlook: A feature highlights the emerging LNG corridor linking northern Mozambique to South Africa’s Richards Bay and Ngqura as a structural shift that could reshape regional production, trade and industrialization. Africa Xenophobia Spillover: Nigeria escalated warnings to South Africa over xenophobic violence and killings of Nigerians, while nearly 25,000 migrants reportedly fled South Africa amid protests and repatriation pressure. Alcoa–South32 Deal: Alcoa agreed to buy South32’s aluminium assets in a $5.6bn deal, with Moody’s placing South32 on downgrade watch—an important signal for metals and power-linked projects across the region.

Cabo Delgado Security: Mozambique’s President Daniel Chapo says the EU will fund Rwandan troops supporting the counter-insurgency in northern Cabo Delgado, after Rwanda warned it would withdraw without international financing. Fiscal & Business Climate: Mozambique’s Finance Minister Carla Louveira told the CTA the state is pushing reforms to reduce the fiscal deficit, modernise public finance and broaden the tax base without raising the burden on current formal taxpayers. Fees & Competitiveness: CTA accuses the Mozambican state of lacking centralized coordination, driving a proliferation of fees and penalties that raise operating costs and hurt company competitiveness. Regional Energy Outlook: A new LNG corridor linking northern Mozambique’s Rovuma Basin to South Africa’s Richards Bay and Ngqura is framed as a structural shift that could reshape Southern Africa’s production, trade and industrialisation. South Africa–Mozambique Link via Aviation: Fastjet says Solenta AOCs in Gabon and Côte d’Ivoire could support a future West Africa franchise push, while Mozambique’s brand is pending relaunch under a Solenta agreement. Health & HIV Prevention: A modelling study backs targeted, not universal, twice-yearly lenacapavir PrEP for pregnant and breastfeeding women in high-incidence districts, aiming to cut vertical HIV transmission at lower cost. Climate Risk for Mozambique: FAO and WFP seek over $200m to protect 8.8m people across 22 high-risk countries from El Niño impacts, with Mozambique listed among the most exposed. El Niño Warning: The same UN-linked coverage stresses Africa’s El Niño effects will vary, with drought and flooding risks depending on location. Migration Pressure: Reports highlight the closure of South Africa’s Epping repatriation centre and ongoing strain on shelters as migrants seek assistance, with Mozambique and Zimbabwean nationals among those affected.

South Africa–Mozambique trade push: President Daniel Chapo used Tanzania’s 50th Dar es Salaam International Trade Fair to argue for deeper Mozambique–Tanzania cooperation, pointing to transport corridors, border upgrades (including one-stop posts), tourism and cashew value chains as key growth levers. Mozambique business infrastructure: Maputo’s Port of Maputo has selected Kalé as technology partner for Mozambique’s first Port Community System initiative, aimed at streamlining port processes. Mining finance shock with Mozambique link: Moody’s put South32 on downgrade review after its $5.6bn aluminium sale to Alcoa, with Mozal Aluminium in Mozambique the only major aluminium asset left in South32’s portfolio—highlighting how power constraints in Mozambique can shape investor risk. Regional migration pressure on markets: South Africa’s anti-migrant crackdown continues to disrupt cross-border movement, with Musina repatriation processing accelerating and bus shortages slowing throughput—an operational headache for regional trade and labour flows. Governance & rule-of-law in the region: Zimbabwe’s Law Society leadership was elected to the SADC Lawyers’ Association executive council during a Mozambique-hosted meeting, reinforcing regional legal cooperation.

Mozambique–Tanzania Trade Push: President Daniel Chapo used the 50th Dar es Salaam International Trade Fair to urge deeper economic integration with Tanzania, betting on transport corridors, border upgrades (including one-stop posts at Negomano), tourism and cashew value chains to turn the corridor into a single investment destination. Regional Migration Shock: South Africa’s anti-migrant crackdown continues to ripple across the region, with Musina repatriation operations accelerating and Kenya warning its final evacuation flight out of Johannesburg departs July 9, while Nigeria escalated diplomatic pressure on Pretoria over attacks on Nigerians. Mozambique Banking Watch: Mozambique’s Prime Rate stays at 15.50% in July, keeping borrowing costs tight for households and firms. Zimbabwe Mining Crackdown: ZACC and ZIMRA busted a lithium smuggling syndicate, arresting a Harare businesswoman and alleging fraudulent exports to China via Forbes Border Post. Southern Africa Fiscal Pressure: Malawi is flagged by the World Bank as likely to post the region’s biggest fiscal deficit in 2026, with Mozambique among countries facing continued budget strain.

Mozambique Banking: The Mozambican Association of Banks kept the Prime Rate at 15.50% for July, warning that financing conditions remain tight for households and companies. Port Digitalisation: Maputo Port’s first Port Community System project has been awarded to Kalé Logistics Solutions, aiming to streamline customs, shipping, and logistics data sharing. Drugs Enforcement: SERNIC incinerated 3.7 tonnes of fentanyl seized in June, arresting at least four suspects and highlighting a sharp drop in drug seizures year-on-year. Conservation Capacity: ANAC launched a transboundary conservation training programme for managers and rangers across southern Mozambique, funded via SADC and German support. Regional Trade Push: Presidents Daniel Chapo and Samia Suluhu Hassan used Tanzania’s 50th DITF to call for deeper Mozambique–Tanzania value chains and faster AfCFTA implementation. Migration Pressure (Regional): South Africa’s intensified immigration crackdown is still driving repatriations and straining border processing capacity, with Mozambique-linked humanitarian support reported for Malawians fleeing attacks. Crime & Trade Risk: A ZACC-ZIMRA operation in Zimbabwe uncovered a lithium smuggling syndicate, including a Mozambican transit declaration tied to shipments to China. Tech & Jobs (Africa): Google Play launched a $1m Indie Games Fund for African studios, offering equity-free capital and mentorship to scale local game development.

Mozambique Banking & Rates: The Mozambican Association of Banks kept the Prime Rate at 15.50% for July, warning financing conditions remain tight for households and firms. Port Digitalisation: Maputo Port Development Company awarded Mozambique’s first Port Community System project to Kalé Logistics Solutions, aiming to streamline customs, vessel, cargo and payment processes on a single digital platform. Regional Trade Push: Mozambique’s Daniel Chapo used Tanzania’s 50th Dar es Salaam International Trade Fair to call for deeper value-chain links and faster AfCFTA implementation, while Tanzania’s Samia hailed the fair’s role in growing trade and investment. Cabo Delgado Security Funding: Chapo said the EU will finance Rwanda’s terrorism mission in Cabo Delgado (with EU public funds), alongside reconstruction support and continued openness to talks. Drug Enforcement: SERNIC incinerated 3.7 tonnes of fentanyl seized in June at Maputo Airport, arresting at least four suspects and citing a sharp drop in seized drugs year-on-year. Conservation Capacity: ANAC launched a transboundary conservation training programme in Maputo National Park for managers and rangers across southern Mozambique, funded via SADC TFCA. South Africa Migration Spillover: Mozambique-linked developments in the region continued as repatriation processing at Musina/Beitbridge strains capacity and governments tighten immigration enforcement.

Port & Trade Digitisation: Mozambique’s Port of Maputo launched its first Port Community System initiative, awarding the Port Community System project to Kalé Logistics Solutions to connect shipping, customs, terminals, and payments for faster, more transparent trade processes. Regional Integration Push: Tanzania and Mozambique used the 50th Dar es Salaam International Trade Fair to urge faster AfCFTA implementation, stressing transport, energy, ports, and digital logistics as the real drivers of economic freedom. Cabo Delgado Security Funding: Mozambique’s President Chapo said the EU will finance Rwanda’s terrorism-fighting mission in Cabo Delgado, while also keeping reconstruction funding and talks on the table. Cybersecurity & Digital Economy: Mozambique’s communications minister called for higher cybersecurity investment as scams and fraud rise, pointing to national digital identity and foundational security systems. Disaster Resilience: Mozambique launched emergency rehabilitation works for reservoirs and dams in Gaza and other river basins, funded by the World Bank’s CERC, to reduce flood vulnerability and restore water and farming capacity. Public Health: Mozambique reported trauma-related deaths have climbed to over 30%, prompting a new integrated trauma treatment centre with China to strengthen prevention and hospital capacity. Drug Enforcement: SERNIC said it will incinerate 3.7 tonnes of seized drugs at Maputo Airport, alongside arrests linked to the trafficking case. South Africa Migration Spillover: Xenophobic unrest in South Africa continues to trigger emergency repatriations, with Nigeria evacuating another 268 citizens to Lagos.

Climate Risk & Early Action: Experts at a WMO workshop in Arusha urged governments and donors to fund stronger early warning systems and ensure forecasts reach communities fast enough to trigger action before droughts, floods and cyclones hit. Mozambique Security & Development: President Daniel Chapo said the EU will co-finance Rwanda’s anti-terror mission in Cabo Delgado, while Mozambique also pushes reconstruction funding and keeps dialogue on the table. Cybersecurity Push: Mozambique’s communications minister said the country must boost cybersecurity as 900 people have already fallen victim to scams and financial fraud amid 40,000 cyber incidents recorded in 2025. Digital TV Expansion: Mozambique’s TVM began proof-of-concept tests to distribute its signal nationwide via Angola’s ANGOSAT-2, aiming to strengthen regional satellite competitiveness. Public Works Resilience: In Gaza, the government launched World Bank-funded emergency rehabilitation of reservoirs and dams to reduce flood vulnerability after the 2025/26 cyclone season. Health System Strain: Mozambique’s health minister warned trauma deaths have risen from about 8% in 2007 to over 30% today, prompting a new integrated trauma treatment centre with China. Drug Enforcement: SERNIC will incinerate 3.7 tonnes of seized drugs at Maputo Airport, after arrests tied to one of the country’s biggest seizures. Regional Business Shockwaves: South Africa’s anti-migrant protests and violence have triggered mass displacement and evacuations, with Nigeria sending another 268 returnees to Lagos and humanitarian groups calling for immediate support and accountability. Energy & Telecom Investment: Zimbabwe’s Powertel announced a US$10m broadband backbone modernisation, while Mozambique’s broader digital push signals rising demand for connectivity and secure systems.

Mozambique Telecom & Media: Mozambique Television (TVM) has started Proof of Concept transmission tests for nationwide signal distribution from Maputo using Angola’s ANGOSAT-2, with an antenna installed and configured and a future commercial agreement expected to support ANGOSAT-2 capacity in the SADC telecom market. Port Digitalisation: The Port of Maputo’s first Port Community System (PCS) has been awarded to Kale Logistics Solutions, aiming to connect port stakeholders on one secure platform to speed up customs, vessel, cargo and logistics workflows and integrate with systems like the Customs Single Window and payment platforms. Women in Business: President Daniel Chapo reaffirmed female economic empowerment through the Pro-Mulher Fund, designed for simpler credit access for women entrepreneurs and small businesses, modelled on the Local Economic Development Fund. Agriculture Funding: Mozambique has set aside $75m for certified seed purchases for the 2026/27 campaign, targeting reduced reliance on imports and pushing seed traceability and certification to curb counterfeit seeds. Trade & Investment: CTA says the 21st Annual Private Sector Conference (CASP) in Maputo will discuss about $1.2bn in investment opportunities, alongside panels led by President Chapo and the Prime Minister. South Africa Cross-Border Shock: Across South Africa, anti-immigrant protests tied to a June 30 “deadline” saw over 900 arrests, looting incidents and reported deaths, while labour groups warn some employers may be using the xenophobic climate to dismiss migrant workers. Energy & Industry: Electricity generation in South Africa fell 9% year-on-year in May as tariffs climbed, while in aluminium, Alcoa is set to acquire South32’s aluminium assets in a deal up to $5.6bn—excluding Mozambique’s Mozal—highlighting how power costs keep reshaping regional industrial fortunes. Banking Recognition: Banco BiG Moçambique was named Best Investment Bank Mozambique 2026 by Global Banking & Finance Review Awards.

Mozambique Trade Tech: Maputo Port Development Company (MPDC) has awarded Mozambique’s first Port Community System (PCS) to Kalé Logistics Solutions, aiming to digitise port operations and connect stakeholders through a single secure platform covering vessel, cargo, customs, warehouse and payment processes. Mozambique Investment Pipeline: CTA says the 21st Annual Private Sector Conference (CASP) in Maputo (July 14–15) will focus on investment opportunities worth about $1.2bn, with panels led by President Chapo and PM Maria Benvinda Levi plus bilateral sessions with Japan, China, Portugal and African partners. Mozambique Women in Business: President Daniel Chapo reaffirmed the Pro-Mulher Fund to back women entrepreneurs and small firms with simplified credit access, modelled on the Local Economic Development Fund. Mozambique Agriculture Finance: $75m is available for certified seed purchases for the 2026/27 campaign, with traceability and certification expected to be operational by September to curb counterfeit seeds. Mozambique Retail Expansion: Mega Group inaugurated a Maputo cash-and-carry commercial space costing 60m meticais, targeting national products and creating 29 jobs. South Africa Labour & Migration Risk: Labour groups accuse some employers of using the xenophobic climate to push “unlawful pseudo-retrenchments” of migrant workers, while police report 900 arrests during June 30 anti-immigrant marches. South Africa Protest Fallout: Reports of looting and business disruption continue as migrants flee and governments coordinate repatriations, with xenophobia-related misinformation also circulating online. Aluminium Deal With Mozambique Link: Alcoa agreed to buy most of South32’s aluminium assets for up to $5.6bn, but Mozambique’s Mozal smelter is excluded, leaving its future tied to power and restart negotiations.

Mozambique LNG Push: TotalEnergies urged local firms to join the Mozambique LNG project as it scales up work in Cabo Delgado, including a new tender for a 7.1MW solar plant in Afungi—part of a $20bn mega-project resumed after the Palma attack. Aluminium Deal With Mozal Excluded: South32 agreed to sell most aluminium assets to Alcoa in a deal worth up to $5.6bn, but Mozambique’s Mozal smelter is left out and remains on care and maintenance, keeping one of the country’s biggest industrial questions open. South Africa Migration Debate Hits Business: Economists say anti-migrant protests are distracting from deeper economic woes like weak growth and unemployment, while police report hundreds of arrests and at least one death linked to looting during the June 30 unrest. Mozambique Debt Watch: The Bank of Mozambique said domestic debt stock hit 474bn meticais in 2025, with delays in government payments and Cabo Delgado instability weighing on confidence and market functioning. Italy-Mozambique Green Cooperation: Maputo and Rome signed an MoU to advance sustainable development and agroforestry systems, targeting biodiversity, forests, soils, water and climate action. Regional Conservation Funding: Germany-backed SADC transfrontier conservation training will strengthen ranger capacity across Mozambique’s parks and connected landscapes, aiming to reduce human-wildlife conflict and protect livelihoods.

Mozambique LNG momentum: TotalEnergies urged local firms to join the Mozambique LNG value chain, saying the $20bn project is already engaging about 5,000 Mozambicans on site and is pushing training and community programmes. Power supply for LNG build: TotalEnergies also launched a tender for a 7.1MW Afungi photovoltaic plant tied to the LNG construction in Cabo Delgado, as work resumes after the Palma attack. Domestic debt pressure: Mozambique’s domestic debt stock hit 474bn meticais in 2025, with the central bank linking stress to delayed government payments, weaker sovereign bond confidence and tighter interbank conditions, while banks remain adequately capitalised. Conservation capacity in the region: A German-funded SADC transfrontier programme will train wildlife rangers and managers across Banhine, Limpopo and Zinave, plus Maputo National Park, to improve biodiversity protection and human-wildlife conflict response. South Africa spillover for Mozambicans: Anti-illegal immigration protests have triggered arrests (900+ nationwide) and repatriations (25,000+), with Mozambicans among those affected—raising risks for regional trade and cross-border mobility. Regional business signals: South32’s sale of aluminium assets to Alcoa (excluding Mozal) underlines continued restructuring in metals supply chains affecting southern Africa.

South Africa Xenophobia & Business Disruption: Nationwide anti-immigrant marches on June 30 shut shops and slowed transport in Johannesburg and Durban, with police and soldiers deployed after looting and clashes; several African governments accelerated evacuations as migrants fled ahead of the deadline. Mozambique Conservation Win: Mozambique reintroduced 9 female white rhinos to Zinave National Park, boosting its recovery after years of civil-war-era poaching, with ranger and surveillance upgrades supporting breeding. South32-Alcoa Deal: South32 agreed to sell most of its aluminium value chain assets to Alcoa for up to $5.6bn, excluding Mozambique’s Mozal (still on care and maintenance), with completion targeted for 2H 2027. African Aviation MRO Push: Kenya Airways MRO says it has completed its first Boeing 787 D check, signaling growing in-region heavy maintenance capacity as approvals expand to places including Mozambique. Energy Trading & AEW 2026: Trafigura will sponsor African Energy Week 2026, highlighting its role in financing, logistics and fuel distribution across multiple African markets including Mozambique. Regional Health Access: A report urges governments to better integrate private pharmacies into HIV, TB and malaria care to expand treatment and detection.