AGP Executive Report

AI & Authoritarianism: A new report warns AI is making repression cheaper and faster across Africa, citing at least 11 governments spending over $2bn on AI-enabled “smart city” surveillance, including Mozambique. Energy & Food Costs: The Middle East conflict is tightening oil and gas supplies, pushing up inflation and food insecurity risks—WFP flags hunger could rise sharply across regions. Tanzania Abortion Crackdown: A fresh investigation shows unsafe abortion networks operating through brokers, pharmacists and unregistered clinics, with women facing severe complications. South Africa Xenophobia: As anti-migrant violence flares again, critics say the government’s response isn’t working and that scapegoating is masking deeper economic problems. Mozambique Business & Health: Muzi AI, a Mozambican pharmacist’s AI platform, helps patients find medicines and compare prices; meanwhile HRW calls for a transparent probe after fishers were killed by navy personnel in Cabo Delgado. Mozambique Agriculture: Census data shows only 17.8% of arable land is cultivated, underscoring the gap between policy ambition and execution.

Fuel & FX Pressure: Mozambique says fuel queues are easing after Petromoc expanded supply and Arene approved tougher penalties on speculation and hoarding—but the ministry’s own wording points to the real bottleneck: “financing imports,” meaning shortages are increasingly tied to foreign-currency access, not just stockpiling. Agriculture Gap: New census data shows Mozambique cultivates only 17.8% of arable land, with most farms under two hectares and weak irrigation and value chains holding productivity back. Mining Output Signal: Syrah Resources says it’s gradually lifting production at the Balama graphite mine, aiming eventually for 200,000–240,000 tons a year—part of a wider push to revive Mozambique’s graphite industry after years of shutdowns. Health Tech: A Mozambican pharmacist has launched Muzi AI, an app that helps patients find medicines, compare prices and check pharmacy availability in real time. Rights & Schools: Human Rights Watch calls for a transparent probe into navy killings of fishers in Cabo Delgado, while the Attorney-General flags growing drug and alcohol sales near public schools.

Fuel Crisis Watch: Mozambique says fuel queues are easing after a special financing mechanism boosted imports via Petromoc, now supplying about 42% of the market—though the ministry’s own wording hints the real problem is foreign-currency financing constraints, not just speculation. Security & Rights: Human Rights Watch is calling for a transparent probe into the mid-March killing of fishers in Cabo Delgado, alleging navy personnel killed at least 13; Mozambique says the operation targeted fishers during enforcement against non-state armed groups. Drugs in Schools: The Attorney-General’s office says vendors are increasingly selling drugs and alcohol near public schools and urges tighter access control plus prevention programmes. Agriculture Capacity: Mozambique cultivates just 6.5m hectares out of 36m arable land, with insecurity in Cabo Delgado leaving some districts uncounted—yet officials frame it as a major transformation opportunity. Climate Support: Germany pledges €4m for Gaza province flood recovery and climate resilience, to be implemented by WFP. Business Pulse: South Africa’s Quantum Foods reports mixed HY26 results—profits up, revenue down—while warning the second half could be tougher as global shocks feed into costs.

Cabo Delgado Security & Energy: Islamic State’s Mozambique Province is showing signs of renewed operational activity in resource-rich Cabo Delgado, even as major LNG investment resumes—keeping the insurgency tightly linked to the region’s global energy stakes. Fuel Crisis (Mozambique): Mozambique’s fuel queues are easing after Petromoc expanded supply and Arene approved harsher penalties on speculation and hoarding, but the real problem may be “financing imports,” hinting at foreign-currency pressure rather than a simple fuel shortage. Humanitarian Pressure: Over 1.3 million people still need urgent help in northern Mozambique’s terrorism-affected provinces, with women and children hit hardest. Business & Logistics: Kaleido Logistics is integrating IFS South Africa to strengthen corridor logistics across Southern Africa. Regional Trade: South Africa’s early AfCFTA gains show trade is moving both ways, with industrial capacity driving the first wave.

Climate Protest Pressure: Christian activists staged a “die-in” outside the UK Treasury, urging rejection of the Rosebank oilfield expansion, warning it could drive massive emissions and export-driven climate harm. Mozambique Humanitarian Crisis: In Cabo Delgado, Niassa and Nampula, over 1.3 million people still need urgent help as terrorism and displacement keep hitting women and children hardest. Regional Energy Reality Check: South Africa exported almost twice as much electricity as it imported in 2024, relying heavily on Mozambique’s Cahora Bassa hydro—while misinformation about anti-migrant “retaliation” claims was denied by Botswana and Tanzania. Ghana Evacuation Delayed: Ghana postponed the evacuation of Ghanaians from South Africa after registrations surged to 800+ and added legal and flight requirements. Mozambique Business Signals: Eni is weighing a third offshore FLNG platform in the Rovuma Basin, while Mozambique’s government pushes for direct access to international climate funding and invests $10m in beekeeping to boost honey production.

Mozambique Gas Watch: Italian energy group Eni is weighing a third floating LNG platform offshore Mozambique, after taking the final investment decision for its second project, Coral North, which is set to double LNG output to over 7 million tonnes per year by 2028—Rovuma Basin reserves are the key draw. COVID-19 Funding Pressure: WFP and 14 humanitarian agencies warn coronavirus logistics could “stutter to a halt” as only a quarter of a $2bn plan has been funded, urging donors to add $350m for rapid scale-up. Gender & Justice: Equality Now calls on African governments to close legal gaps on sexual violence, FGM, online safety and women’s rights, warning weak enforcement leaves millions unprotected. Energy & Investment: Mozambique says energy, agro-industry and transport need about $3bn in investment, with the UK expected to help mobilise the funds. Regional Security: Rwanda says Mozambique has secured funding to keep Rwandan troops in Cabo Delgado as EU support is not set to continue. Business Climate: Southern Sun reports no material adverse impact on Mozambique operations despite Middle East-linked travel disruptions and fuel pressures.

ZESA Enterprises Crisis: Workers at ZESA Enterprises have declared they have “no confidence” in leadership, after leaked internal documents and petitions allege intimidation, worsening labour relations and centralised decision-making around Acting Managing Director Godfrey Mugaviri—raising fresh questions about governance and procurement practices. Mozambique Energy & Dividends: Cahora Bassa will pay 297 million meticais in 2025 dividends to shareholders, while Mozambique’s Planning Ministry says energy, agro-industry and transport need about US$3bn in investment, expected to be mobilised via a UK-linked pact. Water Security Push: President Daniel Chapo launched a 2026–2036 water security compact, calling water a “strategic asset of sovereignty” and pointing to gaps in supply and sanitation. LNG Watch: Eni is considering a third FLNG platform offshore Mozambique, as Rovuma basin gas reserves keep drawing major players. Cross-Border Compliance: South Africa’s SARS will require online declaration of foreign-registered vehicles before border crossings from 1 June.

AI & Digital Push: Yango Group has launched Yango Tech across Africa, moving beyond ride-hailing into B2B AI and digital infrastructure for businesses and public services, as the region ramps up AI adoption and enterprise tech demand. Aviation Connectivity: Qatar Airways is expanding its African network with more Cape Town flights and new routes, including three weekly flights to Port Sudan from July 2, alongside added frequencies to cities like Cairo, Alexandria and Maputo. Mozambique Water Focus: President Daniel Chapo launched a 10-year National Water Security Compact (2026–2036), saying Mozambique needs about $4.5bn to raise water access to 75% and improve sanitation, with major dams and monitoring planned. Energy & LNG Watch: Eni is considering a third FLNG platform in Mozambique’s Rovuma area, after investing in its second platform, while Mozambique expects $76.8m in LNG exploration revenues this year. Wildlife Trade Warning: A new analysis says nearly a million live birds were shipped from Africa to Asia over 15 years, with weak export rules in several countries including Mozambique.

STEM Push in Mozambique: Junior Achievement Africa and the ExxonMobil Foundation launched the 2026 ExxonMobil Foundation STEM Africa Program, with “STEM Africa 2.0” adding AI learning pathways for 4,000 more students aged 14–17 across Angola, Mozambique, Namibia and Nigeria, building on 10,000+ learners already reached. Water Security Funding: Mozambique’s President Daniel Chapo backed the 2026–2036 PROÁguaS water compact, saying the country needs about $4.5bn to lift water access and sanitation, with targets of 75% water supply and 60% sanitation by 2036. Gas Revenue Watch: Finance Minister Carla Louveira said Mozambique expects $76.8m in LNG exploration revenues this year, with part earmarked for the Sovereign Wealth Fund and the rest for the state budget. Disaster Relief: BGF and SDA donated $500,000 in Manica for boreholes, food hampers, school support and medical outreach. Regional Tech Moves: Yango is betting big on Africa with a $150m expansion plan and a new Yango Tech push into AI and digital solutions for businesses and public sector clients.

Aviation & Trade Connectivity: Qatar Airways is stepping up Africa travel with resumed services and higher frequencies from June/July 2026, including four weekly flights to Seychelles and two weekly flights to Kigali from June 16, daily Marrakesh from July 1, plus more capacity on routes like Maputo–Durban and new three-times-weekly flights to Port Sudan starting July 2. Security: US Africa Command and Nigeria’s forces carried out fresh airstrikes in northeastern Nigeria, killing more than 20 suspected ISWAP militants, as operations intensify after the killing of a top Islamic State figure. Water & Infrastructure: Mozambique launched a 10-year National Water Security Compact (2026–2036) aiming to lift water supply coverage to 75% and sanitation to 60%, backed by about $4.59bn for dams, reservoirs, and upgrades to schools and health centres. Business & Tech: Yango Group launched Yango Tech across Africa, moving beyond ride-hailing into AI and digital infrastructure solutions for businesses and public sector clients. Energy Policy: Industrial gas users in South Africa are pushing for a more centralised state role to avert a “gas cliff” after Mozambique’s Pande–Temane supply declines post-2028.

Water Security Push: Mozambique’s President Daniel Chapo launched the National Water Security Compact 2026–2036 in Maputo, aiming to lift clean water access to 75% and sanitation to 60% by 2036, with about US$4.59bn mobilised for dams, reservoirs, monitoring stations, and upgrades to schools and health centres. Regional Energy & Industry: Industrial gas users in Southern Africa warned of a looming “gas cliff” after 2028 and called for policy fixes to protect domestic industry supply. Security Update: US Africa Command and Nigeria’s military carried out additional airstrikes in Nigeria’s Lake Chad zone, killing more than 20 suspected ISWAP militants. Tourism & Trade: At Africa’s Travel Indaba 2026 in Durban, Chinese and African tourism operators sought new partnerships, pushing easier visas and deeper connectivity. Finance Watch: ZHL reported a 28% jump in Q1 insurance contract revenue as its “Great Africa Trek” expansion gains traction. Mozambique Business: Mozambique expects to market about 14.6m tons of agricultural products in the 2026 campaign, up 26% year-on-year.

Green Pharma Cleanup: A push toward a “Green Pharmacopoeia” aims to clean up drug-making processes, with extra weight because India supplies about 20% of the world’s generics and 60% of vaccines. Urban Development Spotlight: The World Urban Forum WUF13 in Baku is drawing global media attention, with countries using it to pitch affordable housing and sustainable city plans. Mozambique Debt Pressure: Mozambique’s public debt has climbed to 1.09 trillion meticais (about $17.1bn) over five years, reaching 72.23% of GDP, as financing gets harder. Hidden Debts Update: In Mozambique’s “hidden debts” case, Privinvest’s appeal was dismissed in the UK for not meeting court conditions. Airline Restructuring: Cahora Bassa approved buying 25.2% of LAM, alongside other state firms, as the government tries to stabilize the carrier. Cement Trade Risk: Concerns are rising that a West China Cement–AfriSam deal could shift production to Mozambique and flood South Africa with cheaper cement.

Hidden Debts Fallout: Mozambique’s “hidden debts” case takes another turn as lawyers for the state say Privinvest’s UK appeal was dismissed for not meeting court conditions, keeping pressure on the long-running dispute tied to loans over $2bn and sovereign guarantees signed by former finance minister Manuel Chang. Public Finance Watch: New figures show public debt has climbed to about 1.09 trillion meticais (around $17.1bn) over five years, reaching 72.23% of GDP, with financing getting harder as debt servicing delays bite. Aviation Reshuffle: Cahora Bassa has approved buying 25.2% of Mozambique Airlines (LAM), alongside other state firms taking stakes as the government tries to restructure the carrier amid an ongoing financial crisis. Regional Diplomacy: Mozambique is also among countries backing a Nairobi push for a united African parliamentary voice on climate and methane talks.

India-Africa Summit Momentum: India is set to host the 2026 India-Africa Forum Summit in New Delhi (28–31 May), aiming to turn political, trade and digital cooperation into a signed “New Delhi Declaration” by 31 May. Climate Methane Push: In Nairobi, African parliamentarians backed a united front on climate and methane talks, arguing financing and targets must match Africa’s development and food-security realities. Mozambique Economy Under Strain: A new analysis says Mozambique is “faltering” rather than collapsing—yet poverty, weak services and limited jobs are worsening as debt and external shocks bite. Mozambique Banking Watch: Mozambique’s banks are starting to feel the pain, with losses linked to impairments and sovereign exposure. Cabo Delgado Pressure: Mozambique’s bishops’ conference renewed concern over ongoing terrorism in Cabo Delgado, citing thousands displaced and widespread destruction. Vodacom Smartphone Drive: Vodacom is pushing prepaid users toward smartphones via device financing, betting on higher data use and broader digital services.

Oil & Gas Accountability: A new report says Africa’s decades of crude extraction haven’t lifted living standards, with benefits concentrated among elites while countries keep exporting and importing costly fuel. Battery Minerals Race: Germany is sending geoscientists to Madagascar’s Molo graphite mine as Europe searches for alternatives to China’s dominance. Mozambique Economy Watch: Mozambique is “faltering” rather than collapsing, but debt stress and weak policy options are leaving households exposed to shocks like higher fuel prices. Banks Under Pressure: Mozambique’s lenders are still profitable, but recent losses and impairments—especially tied to sovereign exposure—signal rising risk. Digital Payments Push: Mastercard and Letshego are rolling out a debit card in Mozambique to expand formal, internationally usable payments. State Oversight: Mozambique’s PM urges transparency and reforms at state-owned companies, targeting profitability, fiscal risk control and better management of public holdings. Cabo Delgado Security: Mozambique’s bishops renew calls for action against attacks on Christian communities, highlighting the ongoing toll in the north.

Mozambique Economy Watch: Mozambique is “faltering” rather than collapsing, but an IMF review flags unsustainable public debt, weak external balances and limited policy options—now worsened by Middle East shocks that push up fuel and disrupt supply chains. Banking Pressure: Mozambique’s banks are starting to feel the strain, with Moza Banco posting losses after impairments and FNB Mozambique also in the red, pointing to stress from sovereign exposures. Food-Fuel Shock Across the Region: The wider crisis is hitting farmers hardest as the Hormuz Strait standoff tightens fertilizer and fuel flows, raising the risk of crop losses and food insecurity from southern Africa to Malawi. Governance & State Firms: Mozambique’s Prime Minister is pushing state-owned companies’ boards to improve transparency and reforms to cut fiscal risk and boost financial sustainability. Security & Business Continuity: In Cabo Delgado, insurgent attacks are reported again across multiple districts, with raids targeting roads, churches and mining areas—raising pressure on stability and local livelihoods.