AGP Executive Report

Mozambique Flood Damage: Severe floods in Gaza have wrecked the Lower Limpopo Irrigation Scheme, with losses estimated at 23 million meticais, including silted canals, damaged roads and pumping-station failures. Fertilizer Fraud Watch (Malawi): Police arrested Agrizone/ETG-linked boss Matius Bonongwe over 670 bags of suspected counterfeit NPK fertilizer, raising fresh food-security concerns for farmers. Regional Integration & Finance: SADC treasury and central bank officials met in Zimbabwe to push macroeconomic convergence, financial stability and reforms, citing improved FATF status for South Africa and Mozambique. South Africa Migration Shock: Anti-immigrant groups’ June 30 “deadline” is driving mass departures and repatriations, with thousands of Malawians stranded in camps and Nigeria planning the return of 271 citizens amid heightened security warnings from President Ramaphosa. Energy Deal (Argentina LNG): Abu Dhabi’s XRG and Italy’s Eni will each buy 32% stakes in three YPF upstream blocks feeding Argentina LNG’s 12 mtpa project. Electricity Access Push: World Bank-backed Mission 300 reports electricity sales up and highlights that nearly 600 million Africans still lack power, keeping investment pressure on.

Mozambique LNG & shipping: Modec won a contract to supply the internal turret mooring system for Eni’s Coral Norte FLNG in Mozambique, targeting first LNG in 2028 and citing cyclone-prone conditions and plans to build local capability. Mozambique aviation restructuring: Mozambique’s government urged patience on the restructuring of state carrier LAM, now placed under management of CFM, EMOSE and HCB after supplier debts linked to alleged embezzlement. Mozambique security & drugs: President Daniel Chapo called for refined strategies against drug trafficking, warning it fuels corruption, money laundering and terrorism and is increasingly affecting adolescents. Mozambique digital connectivity: Mozambique is pushing 5G expansion to provincial capitals and special economic zones by 2027, alongside broader digital transformation progress. South Africa migration spillover for the region: As South Africa braces for 30 June anti-immigrant protests, migrants are fleeing and businesses in border areas are preparing for repatriations; Zimbabwean and Malawian return plans are expanding, with cash and bus support reported for emergency transport. Energy & industry pressure: Nersa said Eskom’s negotiated tariff deals still fall short for energy-intensive industry, while Moody’s flagged Absa’s R4bn Kenya stake increase as credit positive.

Mozambique LNG Deal: Modec has won a contract to supply the internal turret mooring system for Eni’s Coral Norte FLNG project in Mozambique, a 3.6 mtpa LNG development targeting first LNG in 2028, with Modec saying it will keep investing in regional capability. Drug-Trafficking Push: Mozambican President Daniel Chapo urged tougher, more refined strategies against drug trafficking, warning it fuels corruption, money laundering and terrorism and is increasingly affecting adolescents and young people. LAM Restructuring: Mozambique’s transport secretary says patience is needed as Mozambique Airlines (LAM) is restructured under a new management setup involving CFM, EMOSE and HCB, amid efforts to recover from supplier debts linked to past embezzlement. South Africa Migration Shockwaves: As South Africa braces for June 30 anti-immigrant protests, government and analysts warn of economic and human costs, while thousands of Malawians and other foreign nationals rush to leave or face repatriation. Afreximbank Leadership: Afreximbank appointed Peter Adeshola Olowononi as Southern Africa Director of Regional Operations, covering Mozambique and 12 other countries. Zimbabwe El Niño Warning: Zimbabwe received a fresh El Niño warning with high odds through late 2026, renewing pressure on food security planning and drought preparedness.

South Africa Migration Crackdown: Ahead of the June 30 anti-immigrant deadline, South Africa is accelerating deportation and repatriation processing, with reports of thousands of Malawians and other nationals queued at camps and missions as officials warn the day will be “normal” but vigilantism and intimidation will face criminal consequences. Cross-Border Impact on Mozambique Nationals: Mozambicans in South African townships and bus depots say the main pain point is not xenophobia alone, but delays and uncertainty at home affairs, as people rush to leave before the deadline. Regional Business & Mobility: The unrest is also hitting regional commerce and logistics, while companies and transport operators brace for disruption. Afreximbank Leadership Move: Afreximbank appointed Peter Adeshola Olowononi as Southern Africa Director of Regional Operations, covering Mozambique and 12 other countries, signalling continued focus on trade and project finance. Digital Sovereignty Watch: Namibia rejected Starlink’s licence, adding to the debate on how African states regulate satellite connectivity—an issue with direct relevance for regional digital investment. Mozambique Tech Push: Mozambique’s digital transformation coverage highlights progress on AI strategy and 5G expansion plans.

Mozambique Digital Push: The ITU chief Doreen Bogdan-Martin praised Mozambique’s digital transformation, highlighting plans to connect schools, strengthen public services via VaMoz Digital, and build AI skills aligned with a national AI strategy. Fuel Market Strain: Fuel queues returned in Maputo and Matola as diesel and petrol stocks exist but are stuck in bonded warehouses or under “financial hold” due to bank guarantees and price regulation, keeping distributors from releasing product. Regional Finance Leadership: Afreximbank appointed Peter Adeshola Olowononi as Southern Africa Regional Operations Director, expanding leadership for a 13-country region including Mozambique. Anti-Corruption Cooperation: SADC anti-corruption agencies adopted reforms to boost transparency, strengthen independence of watchdogs, and move procurement toward electronic systems. South Africa Migration Shockwaves: Ahead of June 30 anti-immigrant protests, South Africa processed over 15,000 Malawians for repatriation, while MTN chair Mcebisi Jonas blamed state failure for xenophobia rather than foreigners. Business & Jobs: Coca-Cola Beverages Africa opened a 2026 internship programme for diploma and degree students, a small but direct pipeline into corporate employment.

Migration Crackdown Update (South Africa): South Africa’s Inter-Ministerial Committee says 30 June will be a “normal working day,” warning that illegal transport blockades and intimidation will face criminal and civil consequences, while it continues deportation and repatriation processing. Xenophobia Pressure (Regional spillover): Reports say thousands of Malawians are queuing for processing in Durban ahead of an unofficial June 30 deadline, with the justice minister citing 15,162 Malawians already processed for deportation/repatriation. Mozambique Fuel Friction: Fuel queues have returned in Maputo and Matola despite stocks, with distributors pointing to price regulation, foreign currency constraints and bank guarantees as the bottlenecks. Digital Push (Mozambique): The ITU chief praised Mozambique’s digital transformation progress, including connectivity for schools, public service digitisation and an emerging national AI strategy. Anti-Corruption Drive (SADC): SADC anti-corruption agencies adopted reforms to strengthen independence of watchdogs, improve procurement integrity via electronic systems, and boost regional cooperation. Cabo Delgado Security (Mozambique): In northern Mozambique, Islamic State fighters attacked the Namabo military position in Macomia, killing soldiers, underscoring ongoing instability.

Mozambique Emergency Response: Mozambique launched an Emergency Communication Centre and Integrated Emergency Communication System, backed by a $10m World Bank investment, to keep critical links running when normal networks fail. Economic Independence Push: President Daniel Francisco Chapo used Mozambique’s 51st independence anniversary to call for economic self-reliance through industrialisation, local value addition and job creation. Cabo Delgado Security for Investment: Cabo Delgado’s governor urged investors to follow Defence and Security Forces protocols to protect projects and unlock agribusiness and tourism opportunities. Regional Corruption Fight: SADC warned that corruption diverts resources from essential services, urging stronger procurement transparency, beneficial ownership disclosure and whistle-blower protection. South Africa Migration Shock (Mozambique-linked): As South Africa tightens security ahead of June 30 anti-foreigner protests, thousands of migrants—including Mozambicans—are fleeing or being processed for repatriation, raising near-term disruption risks for regional labour and trade flows. Mozambique Business Compliance: Businesses in Cabo Delgado are being challenged to comply with security protocols tied to the fight against terrorism. Trade & Industry Watch: India opened an anti-dumping probe into hot rolled steel imports from China, Japan and Russia—an external move that could ripple into regional steel supply and prices.

Mozambique LNG Deal: Technip Energies-led consortium picked for the $7.2B Coral Norte floating LNG project, with LNG output targeted at 3.6 mtpa by 2028, pushing Cabo Delgado’s gas build-out forward. Mozambique Energy & Infrastructure: MODEC to supply a SOFEC internal turret mooring system for Coral Norte, a key station-keeping component for operations in the Rovuma Basin. Mozambique Independence & Economic Policy: President Daniel Chapo marks 51 years of independence by urging a “second independence” focused on economic independence—production, productivity and economic nationalism. Mozambique Aviation Skills: Government plans a National Academy of Aeronautical Sciences to restart pilot and flight attendant training, aiming to cut training costs abroad and strengthen civil aviation capacity. Digital Payments in the Region: Visa signs a five-year deal with FMBcapital Holdings across Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe to scale digital payments and financial inclusion. South Africa Migration Pressure: As 30 June approaches, diplomats including Mozambique’s high commissioner urge anti-immigration groups to extend deadlines amid fears after attacks on foreign nationals; South Africa tightens security and warns of unrest. Climate Risk for Farmers: FAO maps El Niño drought risk, flagging Southern Africa and parts of the region as high-stakes for crop and pasture impacts.

Mozambique Independence & Economic Independence: President Daniel Chapo marked Mozambique’s 51st Independence Day by stressing that political freedom must be followed by “economic independence” through production, productivity and economic nationalism. Civil Aviation Reform: Mozambique’s government approved the creation of a National Academy of Aeronautical Sciences to restart pilot and flight attendant training at home, aiming to cut training costs abroad and strengthen safety and sovereignty. Cabo Delgado Security Focus: Chapo also urged the Academy of Advanced Strategic Studies (AAEE) to become a national centre for strategic thinking to tackle terrorism, organised crime, cybercrime and other emerging threats. Rovuma FLNG Progress: MODEC will supply a SOFEC internal turret mooring system for Eni’s Coral Norte FLNG offshore Mozambique, adding 3.6m tonnes per year of LNG capacity, with first LNG targeted for 2028. Regional Connectivity & Trade: Angola and Mozambique signed space, satellite and digital pacts to boost connectivity, while Afreximbank reported intra-African trade rose 5.47% to $213.8bn in 2025. Finance & Compliance: Angola said it is making progress toward FATF compliance, aiming to exit the “grey list,” as Mozambique’s regional banking footprint continues to expand. South Africa Migration Risk: Across the region, South Africa is bracing for 30 June anti-immigration marches, with police readiness ramped up amid fears of renewed xenophobic violence—an issue that also affects Mozambicans and other nationals.

FLNG Investment in Mozambique: MODEC will supply a SOFEC® internal turret mooring system for Eni’s Coral Norte FLNG project offshore Mozambique, targeting first LNG in 2028 and adding 3.6 MTPA capacity, with engineering and integration support alongside Technip Energies-JGC. Debt and Financing Watch: Kenya’s shift of some Chinese loan repayments from dollars to yuan is sparking interest from Mozambique and other countries, with potential annual savings highlighted by an AidData study. Digital Push: Mozambique has launched its 5G rollout roadmap, aiming to connect all provincial capitals by 2027 and reach all districts and administrative posts by 2030. Trade and Industry Pressure: Mozambique’s CTA warns the country risks losing growth by still exporting raw materials, urging faster industrialisation and local value addition despite financing, fuel and logistics constraints. Customs Crackdown: Mozambique’s SERNIC arrested another customs official linked to a major fentanyl trafficking case at Maputo Airport, bringing detainees to four. Regional Business Climate: South Africa’s anti-immigration unrest ahead of 30 June continues to raise risks for cross-border trade and investment sentiment across the region.

Mozambique 5G Push: President Daniel Chapo says Mozambique will connect all provincial capitals, special economic zones and densely populated areas to 5G by 2027, with district coverage targeted for 2030, alongside investments in base stations and spectrum allocation. Port & Logistics Outlook: Grindrod flags 30% cargo growth at Maputo over five months to May, but warns Matola terminal volumes lagged 8% after weather disruptions and rail capacity issues—expecting improvement in H2. FLNG Supply for Rovuma: MODEC will deliver a SOFEC internal turret mooring system for Eni’s Coral Norte FLNG offshore Mozambique, with first LNG production targeted for 2028. Drug Trafficking Crackdown: Mozambique’s SERNIC arrests a customs official over a fentanyl case involving 3.7 tonnes seized at Maputo Airport, bringing detainees to four. Digital Payments Deal: FMB Capital Holdings and Visa sign a five-year partnership to expand secure digital payments and financial inclusion across Southern Africa, including Mozambique. Regional Risk Watch (SA): South Africa braces for June 30 anti-immigration protests, with police warning against a repeat of 2021 unrest and migrants seeking shelter near embassies.

Mozambique 5G Push: President Daniel Chapo says Mozambique will connect provincial capitals, special economic zones and dense areas to 5G by 2027, with $50m earmarked for 60 base stations and links to 300+ settlements. Public-Company Debt Chain: Mozambique Airports (AdM) reported net earnings of MZN637m in 2025, reversing a prior loss, but the turnaround is tied to debt restructuring with LAM—highlighting how arrears ripple across state firms. Digital Skills in the Region: Yango Cameroon and Zindi ran a 300+ participant mobility prediction hackathon, extending a Mozambique-included programme aimed at building AI talent. Cross-Border Mobility: SENAMI recorded a 18% rise in internal cross-border travel in Mozambique to 2.47m travellers over five months, alongside higher passport and visa issuance. Mining & Critical Minerals Watch: NeoTerra Group plans to expand beyond rare earths after rebranding, with Mozambique’s Monte Muambe in focus for gallium and other critical minerals. Regional Context—Payments & Xenophobia: South Africa’s Reserve Bank moves to regulate offshore payment facilitators, while xenophobic unrest and repatriation pressures continue to disrupt regional labour and commerce.

Mozambique Development Finance: ADIN will lead the Moz Community project in Cabo Delgado, Niassa and Nampula, rolling out a World Bank-funded $250m programme to cut regional disparities, create youth jobs and build resilient local infrastructure. Critical Minerals & Investment Climate: Altona Rare Earths rebrands as NeoTerra Group, expanding beyond rare earths at Mozambique’s Monte Muambe into gallium, fluorspar and other critical minerals, as supply-chain diversification heats up. Cabo Delgado Security & Business Risk: ACLED reports Islamist militants in Cabo Delgado are increasingly using IEDs to slow Mozambican and allied forces, with attacks concentrated around Macomia and Mocímboa da Praia. Cross-Border Mobility: SENAMI says cross-border travel into and out of Mozambique rose 18% to 2.47m travellers in the first five months, alongside higher passport and visa issuance. Regional Finance & Trade Context: Standard Bank wins Global Finance Awards for Investment Banking and Sustainable Finance, highlighting its role in funding energy transition and infrastructure across Africa. South Africa Migration Pressure (Regional spillover): South Africa’s police set aside R600m for June 30 anti-foreigner unrest, while Malawians and other nationals continue repatriation waits—an economic risk for regional trade and logistics.

Mozambique Digital Push: President Daniel Chapo says Mozambique will connect all provincial capitals, SEZs and dense areas to 5G by 2027, with broadband expansion to all districts and administrative centres by 2030, aiming to attract investment and improve public services. Rovuma LNG Momentum: Sponsors of the Rovuma LNG project are expected to mandate banks later this year as financing progresses, keeping gas at the centre of Mozambique’s big-ticket growth plans. AI Regulation in Finance: Bank of Mozambique governor Rogério Zandamela calls for clear AI rules for banks and financial systems, warning about consumer harm, data misuse and cybersecurity risks. Trade & Industry Pressure: South Africa’s ITAC moves toward provisional anti-dumping duties on Mozambican steel pipe imports, citing dumped prices and injury/threat to SACU producers. Mining Social Compact: Kenmare and MASC launch a $500,000 plan to strengthen social cohesion in Nampula mining communities between 2026 and 2028. Regional Security Cooperation: Zimbabwe and Mozambique urge tighter intelligence sharing to tackle cross-border drug trafficking and other transnational crime.

5G Rollout: Mozambique plans to connect all provincial capitals, special economic zones and densely populated areas to 5G by 2027, with broadband expansion targeted for all districts and administrative centres by 2030, aiming to boost investment, digital inclusion and tourism. LNG Finance Watch: The Rovuma LNG project’s $25bn sponsors are expected to mandate banks later this year as financing momentum continues. IsDB Partnership Plan: Mozambique and the Islamic Development Bank agreed to a three-year partnership plan to define and structure new priority financing projects, including power transmission and Temane-related power evacuation, plus education support in Cabo Delgado. Banking Regulation: Bank of Mozambique governor Rogério Zandamela called for clear AI rules in finance to protect consumers, data and stability while allowing innovation. Trade Remedy: South Africa’s ITAC moved to impose provisional anti-dumping duties of 28.86% on certain Mozambican steel pipe imports, citing dumped pricing harming SACU manufacturers. Mining Social Cohesion: Kenmare and MASC launched a $500,000 programme (2026-2028) to strengthen community participation and conflict resolution in Nampula’s mining areas. Regional Migration Pressure: South Africa increased police deployment ahead of the June 30 anti-foreigner deadline, while Mozambique-linked nationals were among those repatriated or awaiting return amid xenophobia-linked unrest.

Mozambique Mining Policy: Mozambique’s amended mining law requiring the state to hold a 15% stake in all mining ventures is already worrying investors, with the Chamber of Mines warning the rule could deter foreign capital and complicate projects—especially as the law also pushes more local processing. Banking & Regulation: Bank of Mozambique Governor Rogério Zandamela urged clear rules for AI use in the financial sector, saying innovation must be balanced with stability, security and consumer protection. Regional Trade & Logistics: UNIFREIGHT says its Mozambican operations lifted group revenue in 2025 as regional expansion beyond its home market paid off, underscoring Mozambique’s role in cross-border freight growth. Energy & Infrastructure (Regional spillover): South Africa moved forward on its first LNG import terminal at Richards Bay, with Mozambique gas supply expected to decline before 2030—raising the stakes for regional energy planning. Cross-border Migration Pressure: Anti-foreigner protests in South Africa are driving mass departures and repatriations across the region, with Mozambique repeatedly named among the nationalities affected, adding uncertainty for regional labour and trade flows. Diplomacy: Zimbabwe’s ambassador to Mozambique and Eswatini, Victor Matemadanda, died at 66, with Mozambique-linked bilateral cooperation now facing a transition period.